No matter which
trading style you decide to pursue, you need an organized trading plan, or you
won’t get very far. The difference between making money and losing money in the
forex market can be as simple as trading with a plan or trading without one. A
trading plan is an organized approach to executing a trade strategy that you‘ve
developed based on your market analysis and outlook.
Here are the key
components of any trading plan:
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Determining position size: How large a
position will you take for each trade strategy? Position size is half the equation
for determining how much money is at stake in each trade.
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Deciding where to enter the position:
Exactly where will you try to open the desired position? What happens if your
entry level is not reached?
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Setting stop-loss and take-profit levels:
Exactly where will you exit the position, both if it's a winning position (take
profit) and if it's a losing position (stop loss)? Stop-loss and take-profit
levels are the second half of the equation that determines how much money is at
stake in each trade.
That’s it - just
three simple components. But it’s amazing how many traders, experienced and
beginner alike, open positions without ever having fully thought through
exactly what their game plan is. Of course, you need to consider numerous finer
points when constructing a trading plan, but for now, I just want to drive home
the point that trading without an organized plan is like flying an airplane
blindfolded - you may be able to get off the ground, but how will you land?
And no matter
how good your trading plan is, it won‘t work if you don’t follow it. Sometimes
emotions bubble up and distract traders from their trade plans. Other times, an
unexpected piece of news or price movement causes traders to abandon their
trade strategy in midstream, or midtrade, as the case may be. Either way, when
this happens, it‘s the same as never having had a trade plan in the first
place.
Developing a
trade plan and sticking to it are the two main ingredients of trading discipline. If we were to name
the one defining characteristic of successful traders, it wouldn’t be technical
analysis skill, gut instinct, or aggressiveness - though they’re all important.
Nope, it would be trading discipline. Traders who follow a disciplined approach
are the ones who survive year after year and market cycle after market cycle.
They can even be wrong more often than right and still make money because they
follow a disciplined approach. Yet establishing and maintaining trading
discipline is an elusive goal for many traders.
Taking the emotion out of trading
If the key to
successful trading is a disciplined approach - developing a trading plan and
sticking to it - why is it so hard for many traders to practice trading
discipline? The answer is complex, but it usually boils down to a simple case
of human emotions getting the better of them.
I remember an
episode of the TV sitcom M *A *S *H, in which Hawkeye Pierce (Alan Alda)
observes that the three basic human emotions are greed, fear, and greed. Certainly,
that’s the case in financial market trading. When it comes to trading in any market,
don’t underestimate the power of emotions to distract and disrupt.
So exactly how
do you take the emotion out of trading? The simple answer is: You can’t. As long
as your heart is pumping and your synapses are firing, emotions are going to be
flowing. And truth be told, the emotional highs of trading are one of the
reasons people are drawn to it in the first place. There’s no rush quite like
putting on a successful trade and taking some money out of the market. So just
accept that you’re going to be experiencing some pretty intense emotions when
you’re trading.
The longer
answer is that because you can’t block out the emotions, the best you can hope
to achieve is understanding where the emotions are coming from, recognizing
them when they hit, and limiting their impact on your trading. It's a lot
easier said than done, but keep in mind some of the following, and you may find
you’re better able to keep your emotions in check:
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Focus on the pips and not the dollars and cents. Don’t be distracted by the exact amount of money won or lost in a
trade. Instead, focus on where prices are and how they’re behaving. The market
has no idea what your trade size is and how much you’re making or losing, but
it does know where the current price is.
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It’s not about being right or wrong; it’s about making money. At the end of the day, the market doesn’t care if you were right
or wrong, and neither should you. The only true way of measuring trading
success is in dollars and cents.
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You’re going to lose in a fair number of trades. No trader is right 100% of the time. Taking losses is as much a
part of the routine as taking profits. You can still be successful over time
with a solid risk-management plan.
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The market is not out to get you. The market
is going to do what it does whether you’re involved in it or not, so don’t take
your trading results personally. Interpret them professionally, just as you
would the results of any other business venture.
Managing your expectations
Currency trading
is a relatively new opportunity for individual traders, and a lot of people
have no frame of reference about what to expect when it comes to price
movements. A frequent question asked by newcomers is “How much can I expect to
make on this trade?” Whoa, Nelly. Talk about a loaded question.
Financial
markets are not bank ATMs, and the forex market is certainly no exception.
There are a lot of people speculating on which way various currency pairs are
going to move; some of those people are going to be right, and some are going
to be wrong. Some may also be right for a moment but suddenly end up on the
wrong side of equation. Trading can play out in many different ways, but at the
end of the day it all comes down to making money or losing money.
Before you get
involved with trading currencies, you need to have a healthy sense of what to
expect when it comes to trading outcomes. Many people choose to focus on only
the upside prospects of currency trading, like the view expressed in that
loaded question earlier. But losses are part of trading, too. Even the biggest
and best traders have losing trades on a regular basis.
One of the keys
to establishing trading discipline is to first accept that losses are
inevitable. The second step is to dedicate yourself to keeping those losses as
small as possible. Most experienced traders will tell you the hardest part of
trading is keeping the money you've made and not giving it back to the market.
Imagining realistic profit-and-loss scenarios
The trading
style that you decide to pursue will dictate the relative size of profits and
losses that you can expect to experience. If you’re trading on a short- to
medium-term basis, look at average daily trading ranges to get a good idea of
what to expect.
The average daily trading range is a
mathematical average of each day's trading range (high to low) over a specified
period. Keep in mind that this figure is just a statistical average - there
will be days with larger ranges and days with narrower ranges. Also, average
daily ranges will vary significantly by currency pair.
But the average
daily trading range covers a full 24-hour trading session and tends to
overstate what short- and medium-term traders can expect from intraday trading
ranges. Generally speaking, you’re better off anticipating more modest price
movements of 30 to 80 pips rather than aiming for the homerun ball.
And no matter
what any infomercial tells you, you’re not going to retire based on any single
trade. The key is to hit singles and stay in the game.
Balancing risk versus reward
Trading is all
about taking on risk to generate profits. So one question is frequently posed:
“How much should I risk in any given trade?” There is no easy answer to that
question. Some trading books advise people to use a risk/reward ratio, like
2:1, meaning that if you risk $100 on a trade, you should aim to make $200 to
justify the risk. Others counsel to never risk more than a fixed percentage of
your trading account on any single trade. It's all a bit formulaic, if you ask me,
and it also has no relation to the reality of the markets.
A better way to
think about risk and reward is to look at each trade opportunity on its own and
assess the outcomes based on technical analysis. This approach has the virtue
of being as dynamic as the market, allowing you to exploit trade opportunities
according to prevailing market conditions.
Another factor
to consider in balancing risk and reward is the use of leverage. In online
currency trading, generous leverage ratios of 100:1.1 or 200:1 are typically
available. The higher the leverage ratio, the larger position you can trade
based on your margin. But leverage is a double-edged sword because it also
amplifies profits and losses.
The key here is
to limit your overall leverage utilization so you’re not putting all your eggs
in one basket. If you open the largest position available based on your margin,
you’l1 have very little cushion left in case of adverse price movements. It may
seem sexy to trade as large a position as possible, but whoever said prudent,
risk-aware trading was supposed to be sexy? Keep your feet on the ground, and
don’t lose your head in the clouds of leverage.
Keeping your ammunition dry
The margin
you’re required to post with your forex broker is the basis for all your
trading. The amount of margin you put up will determine how large a position
you can hold and for how long (in pips) if the market moves against you. Unless
you just won the lottery, your margin collateral is a precious, finite
resource, so you have to use it sparingly.
If Hamlet were
alive today and trading currencies, his famous soliloquy might begin “To trade
or not to trade?” One of the biggest mistakes traders make is known as
overtrading. Overtrading typically
refers to trading too often in the market or trading too many positions at
once. Both forms suggest a lack of discipline, and sound more like throwing
darts at a board and hoping something sticks.
Keeping your ammunition dry refers to staying out of the market, watching and waiting, and
picking your trades more selectively.
Opportunity lost or opportunity cost?
One of the more
popular market aphorisms is “You've got to be in it to win it." Though
it’s obviously a truism, we would counter that trading discretion is the better
part of trading valor. Holding open positions not only exposes you to market
risk, but can also cost you market opportunities.
After you enter
a position, your available margin is reduced, which in turn lowers the amount
of available positions you can establish. If you’re routinely involved in the
market because you don’t want to miss out on the next big move, you actually
run the risk of missing out on the next big move because you may not have
enough available margin to support a position for the big move.
Don’t be afraid
about missing out on some trade opportunities. No one ever catches all the
moves. Instead, focus on your market analysis and pinpoint the next
well-defined trading opportunity.
Thinking clearly while you can
Another virtue
of trading less frequently is that your market outlook is not skewed by any of
the emotional entanglements that come with open positions. If you ask a trader
who’s long EUR/USD What he thinks of EUR/USD, surprise, surprise - he’s going
to tell you he thinks it’s going up. That’s called talking your book.
But being out of
the market, or being square, allows you to step back and analyze market
developments with a fresh perspective. That’s when you can spot opportunities
more clearly and develop an effective trade strategy to exploit them. All too
soon, you‘ll be on to your next trade, and the emotional roller coaster will
start all over again.